If you read the headlines lately, you’d think housing affordability is completely broken and that some big fix is right around the corner.
Lower rates. Policy reform. A reset back to 2019.
Here’s the reality: there is no reset coming.
And honestly? That’s not the most important part.
What matters more is how the market is adjusting and what that means for buyers and sellers who are actually paying attention right now.
Especially here in the Triangle.
The Big Misunderstanding About Affordability
Most people assume affordability problems are about one thing: prices.
But affordability is really the interaction between prices, incomes, and borrowing costs. And right now, borrowing costs are doing most of the heavy lifting.
To get back to true 2019-level affordability, one of three extreme things would have to happen:
None of those outcomes are realistic in the near future, nationally or locally.
That’s why waiting for housing to feel “cheap again” is likely a long, frustrating strategy.
What Is Actually Changing in 2026
Here’s the nuance the headlines often miss.
Affordability isn’t improving because homes are suddenly inexpensive. It’s improving slightly because conditions are stabilizing.
Rates are still elevated, but no longer wildly volatile
Prices are growing more slowly, not collapsing
Incomes are inching up
Buyers can finally plan instead of guessing
That matters more than people think.
When uncertainty fades, activity returns even if conditions aren’t perfect.
What I’m Seeing Right Now (This Matters)
Here’s why this isn’t just theory for me.
In just the first six days of the year, I’ve had more serious buyer and seller conversations than I typically see this early.
Not tire-kickers.
Not “just curious.”
Real people, moving forward. Now.
That tells me something important:
Buyers weren’t waiting for rates to drop. They were waiting for clarity.
The calendar flipping to January gave people permission to act.
Why the Triangle Feels This Shift First
The Triangle doesn’t move in lockstep with national averages.
We have:
So when national affordability improves a little, the Triangle often feels it earlier.
That early-year buyer activity isn’t random, it’s a leading indicator.
Historically, when buyers move first here, sellers follow.
What This Means for Buyers
If you’re waiting for:
You may be waiting a very long time.
But if you’re willing to:
There are opportunities, especially before competition ramps up later in the year.
What This Means for Sellers
This isn’t a market for aspirational pricing.
But it is a market for:
Correct pricing
Clean presentation
Clear strategy
Homes that are priced for today, not yesterday, are still moving, especially in the Triangle.
The biggest risk I’m seeing right now isn’t underpricing.
It’s hesitation.
Bottom Line
Housing affordability isn’t broken the way people think.
It’s being redefined.
The market isn’t crashing.
It’s adjusting.
And early 2026 is already showing signs of movement, especially here in the Triangle.
The question isn’t whether things will get easier.
It’s who adapts first.
