The Lock-In Effect Has Defined the Last Two Years

For much of the past few years, the housing market has been explained by one phrase: the lock-in effect. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates didn’t want to sell, inventory stayed tight, and buyers faced limited options.

The assumption has been simple — nothing changes until rates drop meaningfully.

That assumption is starting to show cracks.

What the Latest Mortgage Data Is Telling Us

Recent mortgage data shows a quiet but important shift: the share of homeowners carrying mortgages above 6% has now surpassed those with rates below 3%.

That doesn’t mean borrowing suddenly became affordable. It means more homeowners are already living in a higher-rate reality and adjusting their expectations accordingly.

Why Life Events Matter More Than Rates

This shift isn’t being driven by optimism or speculation. It’s being driven by life.

People still move because of:

• Job changes

• Growing families

• Divorce

• Downsizing

• Aging parents

Mortgage rates influence timing, but they don’t pause these decisions indefinitely. More homeowners are deciding that waiting for “perfect” conditions simply isn’t realistic.

This Is Not a Flood of Inventory

The lock-in effect hasn’t disappeared. Most homeowners still hold mortgages below today’s rates.

What has changed is the number of homeowners who are willing to make a move anyway.

That creates a market where pricing mistakes are punished quickly. Homes priced with yesterday’s expectations sit. Homes priced and positioned correctly still sell.

What This Looks Like in the Triangle

Locally, this shows up as:

• More sellers open to conversations they avoided a year ago

• Buyers remaining cautious but engaged

• A growing gap between list price expectations and market reality

This market rewards preparation and realism — not urgency or headlines.

The Bottom Line

The lock-in effect isn’t over.
But it’s no longer the dominant force shaping the housing market.

As we head into 2026, success will depend less on timing rates and more on aligning real-life decisions with real-world conditions.